The month of January usually brings with it a rash of predictions on where our industry is heading for the coming year and this past January was no different. Following the well-respected end-of-the-year predictions by PriceWaterhouseCoopers each December, the January batch is mostly done by those who read the PwC report, stick their finger in the air, and play off of that report. At least, from my perspective, this is the level of expertise that goes into most of these predictions.
Going To Extremes
There are those who see the negatives in every positive situation. Then there are those who want to outdo those with a positive outlook by being extra bullish about the hotel industry’s fortunes in 2004. Of course, there is also the middle-of-the-road group who see some positives, and then some negatives and let you make the decision yourself. And then among the pessimists are those who will only see a positive for the hotel industry if it can match year 2000 numbers, knowing full well that it will take years of momentum to get back to those levels.
So you may ask, if you are so turned off by all these predictions, why devote any time to analyzing them? Simply put, in our roles as journalists for the hotel industry, we have to evaluate all who are looking to grab some valuable editorial space to ballyhoo their “findings.” But we will not give credence to all of the negatives, because they are so counterproductive coming at a time when we all feel and see the industry improvements. Because it is fragile, right now, we don’t want to spread fear among our coveted readership just when they are feeling good about near-term business.
For all too many years in this business, I have allowed my gut instincts to guide me in my outlook, and it has been reinforced the last few years by the PwC report. Those who are seeing the return of business to our beleaguered industry are not being overly optimistic, they know how to read the signs; the lively deals being done, the lenders talking positively, and new construction projects busting out all over our map.
Straight From The Sources
Finally, private discussions with the quiet “movers and shakers” in the business are the clinchers for me. Typical was a discussion with Allen Ostroff who wears many development hats in our business. “I haven’t seen this kind of activity in over 10 years,” he said, reciting a long list of projects.
And those who refuse to see a return to positive territory because it doesn’t match the year 2000 are way off base.