LONDON— The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) predicts a modest increase in travel and tourism activity for 2002 when all the figures are in, and anticipates solid growth in 2003. The WTTC just released its forecasts in a series of new economic reports with research produced by Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF). The WTTC noted that for most of 2002, output has been running slower than in 2001 as demand has been hit first by worries over traveling as a result of 9/11 and by spending cutbacks associated with the global economic downturn. However, fourth-quarter output is running well above that seen in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, so the end-of-year estimates are looking more positive than they were in March of this year, according to the WTTC. In fact, the WTTC noted that the relative strength of consumer spending in many countries compared with expectations earlier in the year has helped maintain personal travel and tourism spending, and industry output in 2002 will be flat rather than decline as was predicted in the spring of this year. In March 2002, WTTC predicted record growth in 2003. However, the Council said these forecasts changed as a result of the bombing in Bali, continuing risks from terrorism evident in several countries, possible military action against Iraq and a more fragile world economic recovery. Still, the updated WTTC/OEF forecast for 2003 shows a solid 4.1% real growth for the year.
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