NEW YORK A recent lodging report released by Keith Mills, an industry analyst at UBS Warburg, forecast March RevPAR growth to be 1 3%. Mills also said that U.S. hotel RevPAR for the entire year would increase 2%, down from 5.5% in 2000.
Accordng to Mills, February 2001 represented the first month of more moderate RevPAR growth trends in the U.S. lodging industry. Based on research, he has concluded that the primary reason for this moderation, which may be more severe than current 2001 consensus earnings estimates for lodging companies reflect, is a decline in business travel.
With regard to supply, Mills forecast that growth will be under 3% for 2001. After increasing 3.1% in 2000, U.S. hotel room supply growth increased only 2.9% in February 2001, the same as January .
Finally, Mills reported that RevPAR growth in the largest 25 markets increased a weighted average of 3.2% in February versus 7.7% in January. Hotels in New Orleans, Anaheim-Santa Ana, San Diego and Seattle posted double-digit RevPAR gains in February. Detroit, Nashville, San Francisco, New York, Orlando, Dallas and Minneapolis/St. Paul posted RevPAR declines in February. (3/29/01)
SOURCE:Mills Lodging Report