NEW YORK— At an event held at the Pierre Hotel here Dec. 13, PricewaterhouseCoopers unveiled its projections for the U.S. lodging industry in the coming years, with 2002 showing a slow recovery and 2003 marking the turning point. Given economic trends after previous crises involving America, PwC expects the U.S. economy to see a slow, steady recovery over a 24-month period, similar to that experienced after the Korean War, Cuban Missile Crisis, Iranian Hostage Crisis, and the Persian Gulf War. Though only three months have past since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington D.C., Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D., hospitality industry leader for PwC, noted the nation’s economy currently appears “to be following the same pattern.” U.S. daily RevPar has slowly increased since it plummeted in September to almost 42% below last year’s levels, and was hovering at about 15% below 2000 figures, or about $48, at the end of November, said PwC. However, Hanson noted the slow recovery can also be contributed to a number of factors, which occurred post 9/11 including: the first government-ordered, non-specific terrorist alert issued on Oct. 11; The ‘Halloween Scare’ and generic government alert on Oct. 29; and the plane crash of American Airline flight 587 near JFK airport on Nov. 12. All of these events caused significant drop-offs in RevPar, however, Hanson stated that the numbers have started to climb back up, for all segments, since Nov. 12. The RevPar loss being felt by U.S. hotels is mostly attributed to low occupancy rates throughout the country. PwC projects 2002 will see occupancies hitting their lowest levels since 1971, averaging just shy of 60%. However, the top 25 U.S. markets, excluding Las Vegas, are not suffering from occupancy drops as severe as the rest of the country, said Hanson. In fact, their low RevPar figures are mostly attributed to low average daily rates, which have been decreasing, via internet distributors and #1-800 numbers, since Sept. 11 to attract more guests, he said. In general, the top 25 markets have a significant impact on the nation’s RevPar. While in September the U.S. suffered an average RevPar loss of 23.4% compared to last year, that number would only be down 15.9% if the top 25 markets were excluded. The top U.S. markets “made U.S. RevPar worse by 47%,” said Hanson. RevPar is expected to remain negative throughout 2002, with the exception of slight improvements from the economy and midscale without food and beverage segments. However, in 2003 all segments are projected to show positive RevPar growth, said PwC. In addition, hotel industry profits are expected to see their first declines since 1991 in 2001, dropping to just about $16.8 billion, and will most likely remain flat throughout 2002. However, 2003 should see a turnaround with profits returning to 1998 levels of about $21.5 billion, according to PwC.