PORTSMOUTH, NH — Lodging Econometrics (LE) has revised its macro assumptions for the economy and the near-term direction of the lodging industry as a result of the tragic events of Sept. 11. Adjusting its previously announced “mild recessionary” scenario, LE now sees a steeper thrust followed by a slow, shallow recovery beginning in mid to late 2002 at the earliest. “Important economic and lodging indicators released for August had confirmed earlier that both the economy and the lodging industry were already on a new, downward recessionary track,” said LE President Patrick Ford. He added that “international, political and economic events will continue to remain fluid for some time and will necessitate a number of on-going updates. However, we’re confident that we have a very good post-Sept. 11 ‘baseline scenario’ in place that will serve as a solid foundation for further revisions.” LE announced its revisions in a special edition of Quarterly Perspectives, its new strategic planning newsletter. “For our upcoming third-quarter report, to be published in November, we will include another analysis with updated forecasts about the length and breadth of the downturn as we gain added visibility about political, military and economic conditions,” Ford continued. LE also noted that it has reviewed suggestions and ideas from within the industry about how to get the American public traveling again, and has since synthesized what was felt to be the best of these in a “Recovery Plan for the Travel Industry,” which also appears in its special edition of Quarterly Perspectives.
