A lodging fundamental rebound is only three quarters away, according to Goldman Sachs’ newly issued Lodging Outlook, a biannual lodging forecast. The lodging research firm expects positive RevPAR growth in late 2002 and a serious recovery in 2003. According to the forecast, a decline in RevPAR growth of 8% for the U.S. lodging industry is expected in 2001, followed by an additional 3.3% decline in 2002. However, RevPAR growth is forecast to turn positive in the fourth quarter of 2002, gaining momentum each quarter throughout 2003 for full year RevPAR growth of 6.7%. In addition, the forecast said demand is expected to outpace supply growth by 320 bp in 2003, an improvement from the unfavorable 660 bp spread in 2001.
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