NEW YORK In the final hours of the IH/M&RS, a seminar on Forecasting the Lodging Industry: Occupancy and Average Daily Rate was presented by a trio of Ph.Ds from the University of New Hampshire: Raymond Goodman, Evangelos Simos and Joseph Durocher.
The panel examined and explained the statistical tools hoteliers need to determine how best to create and leverage viable performance figures. In addition to using information from data providers and consultant, such as Smith Travel Research or PKF, Durocher stressed that managers examine external forces. Factors such as the producer price index, employment cost index and unemployment figures can impact markets and hoteliers need to be able to adjust ADR based on a variety of indicators, including changes in foreign economies and conditions, he said.
Just adding 10% to last year s numbers is not forecasting, said Durocher.(11/14/00) Stefani C. O Connor